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سه شنبه 6 تیر 1396

*FREE* Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us pdf

نویسنده: Emilio Pesqueira   

Duncan J Watts: Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us

Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us


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Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard? If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer are less useful than they seem. Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry. It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these influencers in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals. Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life."

The much-loved Mythic Tarot deck has enjoyed international success and become a collector's A Very English Scandal: Sex, Lies and a Murder Plot at the Heart of the Establishment download ebook classic. The card illustrations depict the archetypal characters of the Greek myths, whose experiences perfectly reflect the deeper patterns of our lives today. For The New Mythic Tarot, these myths have been beautifully re-illustrated by Giovanni Caselli, a tarot artist with a passion for the classical world. This major textbook is a newly researched historical study of Evangelical religion in its British cultural setting from its inception in the time of John Wesley to charismatic renewal today. The Church of England, the Church of Scotland and the variety of Nonconformist denominations and sects in England, Scotland and Wales are discussed, but the book concentrates on the broad patterns of change affecting all the churches. It shows the great impact of the Evangelical movement on nineteenth-century Britain, accounts for its resurgence since the Second World War and argues that developments in the ideas and attitudes of the movement were shaped most by changes in British culture. The contemporary interest in the phenomenon of Fundamentalism, especially in the United States, makes the book especially timely.


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Author: Duncan J Watts
Number of Pages: 368 pages
Published Date: 26 Jun 2012
Publisher: Random House USA Inc
Publication Country: New York, United States
Language: English
ISBN: 9780307951793
Download Link: Click Here
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